Morning Up Date 9::10 AM - FLOAT

Bonds are off again this morning after Friday's sell off.  Stocks this morning are also trading lower as the DJIA is down - 22 points and the FNMA 4.5% coupon is trading down -11 bps.  Technically the FNMA is still bullish but the 20 day moving average is creeping up which might suggest a new trading range.  There is numerous economic reports out this week, so we want to keep an eye out to make sure we don't lose any ground as the FNMA 4.5% coupon was up +22bps for the week last week.

Suggest FLOATING today but will keep a careful eye on the markets and will alert if anything changes.

Morning Up Date 9:30AM 9.10.09 - FLOAT

Bonds and mortgages opened the trading day strong. Weekly jobless claims were down 26k. The FNMA is up +31bps. The trasury will auction 30 yr bonds this afternoon. Demand is expected to be strong.

 The DJIA is currently up 15.19 points as traders focus on health care. Stocks traded down earlier in the morning and has rebounded, with not much impact on bonds.

 Continue to FLOAT as bonds trade above support. Will isuue an alert if things change.

Morning Up Date 8:50AM 9.9.09 - FLOAT

Stock index futures were pointing to a higher open for stocks.  The DJIA did open higher and is now up +21.16 points.  Initialy bonds were down but have gained some ground.  The FNMA 4.5% coupon is down -7 bps.

This afternoon we have the 10 yr. auction and the Fed Beige Book release.  As stated yesterday, bonds will move according to movements in stocks.  Will keep an eye on the market and will alert if anything changes.

Evening Wrap Up 3:45PM 9.8.09

The bond and mortgage markets traded higher through the day as the DJIA closed up +56.07 point form as high as 80 points.  Having stocks sell off a bit towards the end of the day helped mortgages.  The FNMA 4.5% coupon closed up +16pbs form +2bps this morning.  This had Investors re-pricing for the better.

The 3yr auction had good demand as expected.  Tomorrow we have 10 Yr auction and the FED Beige Book.  I would continue to FLOAT overnight and will update in the morning.

Morning Update 9:00AM 9.8.09 - FLOAT

Bond and mortgage markets will take direction from equities with nor much in the way of reports this week.  Pre-market futures had the DJIA opening higher and if fact it did.  The DJIA is now up +45.64 points, on news of M&A activity picking up.  The FNMA 4.5% coupon was trading higher early and sold off on the stock opening and has traded higher now up +2bps. 

Starting this afternoon, the Treasury will start 3 days of auctions with the 3 yr. notes.  Expected to have good demand as the short end has proven over the past couple of months.  Will issue an alert if things change.

Evening Wrap UP 2:30PM 9.4.09

This post is early with the early close of the markets.  The DJIA rallied from earlier in the day to close up +94.09.  Stocks lifted by a suggested healing in the market place.  Bond and mortgages were relatively flat thru the day but sold off once stocks started to rally.  The FNMA 4,5% coupon closed down -28bps.  This caused some lender to re-price for the worse into the holiday weekend.

A concern about the short term is that technically, the 10 yr. didn't break thru resistance and stock traders are looking at the smaller-than-expected decrease in job losses as a positive which could cause the stock rally to gather more steam.  This will put continued selling pressure on bonds and mortgages, which causes mortgage rates to increase.

That said, consider LOCKING anything closing with in 30 days.  Continue to FLOAT for anything longer. 

Morning Up Date 8:45AM 9.4.09 - FLOAT

Pre-market indexes showed the DJIA to open higher right before the unemployment numbers came out.  Once the news hit the markets adjusted with some volatility as expected.  The DJIA sold off to trade in negative terriotory and then rallied and is currently up +20.17 points.  The bond and mortgage markets traded in a similar patter with the FNMA 4.5% coupon trading lower and then higher as stocks sold off.  It is currently trading up +3bps.

The numbers showed that employers were laying people off at a slower rate but expect the unemployment rate to be 9.7% and is the highest since 1983.  A little in the report for everyone but the markets are now looking to next week as it is a short trading day with the markets closing at 2:00.

Continue to FLOAT and will alert if anything changes. 

Evening Wrap Up 5:45PM 9.3.09

Not much happened in the market after the the initial update.  Markets preparing for tomorrow's employment numbers.  Stocks opened higher, then sold off and closed higher at the end of the day with the DJIA up +63.94.  Bonds and mortgages traded in a similar pattern and finally closed down -3bps.  Still suggest FLOATING into the jobs numbers tomorrow. 

Will update again in the morning. 

Morning Update 9:23AM 9.3.09 - FLOAT

The stock futures index was showing stocks opening in positive territory +40 points.  The DJIA is currently trading higher on the morning up +21.24.  As a result mortgages were off but regained some ground.  The FNMA is now trading down -9bps.  Gave back a bit form the last couple of days but pretty flat.  Technically mortgages are bullish trading above support.

This mornings news has weekly jobless claims down 4k to 560,000 but higher than expected.  The previous months number was revised higher and continuing claims also increased.  Market did react much to the report.  Markets getting ready for tomorrows employment report. 

Float for now but might consider locking later today if the FNMA 4.5% coupon doesn't gain much ground.  Big news tomorrow, hard to tell what traders will do on the news.  Will alert if anything changes.